Market Commentary

Durable Goods

Posted on
people shopping

The durable goods report for August came in yesterday. The headline number looked very impressive at an increase of 4.5% when the expectation was for half that amount. This was the biggest increase since February. This is a case in which you do not give the headline number much weight. After you strip out plane […]

Market Commentary

The FED and Interest Rates

Posted on
investment vehicle

The Federal Reserve meets today and will release the results of their meeting with an almost certain increase in interest rates. The rate they control, the overnight rate, influences almost all other rates including the all-important mortgage rates. The fear is that the FED will go too far. The economy is strong, unemployment is low […]

Market Commentary

Trade War

Posted on

This week President Trump imposed up to $200 billion in tariffs on China and China retaliated with $60 billion of their own.  This battle with China and other trading partners was supposed to be a big danger to our stock market as investors worry over corporate profits. But even though trade tensions are escalating the […]

Market Commentary

Housing

Posted on

Today new home construction and builder’s confidence reports were released. The builder’s confidence number remained unchanged month-to-month which is lower than the full year average for 2017. The new construction was much better up to 1.282 million, an increase of 9.2% for August. That is a very good number though it was lower than the […]

Market Commentary

Predictions

Posted on
analytics on desk

Where the stock market goes in any short term period is impossible to predict with any consistency. There are patterns during the year, for example; the market tends to bottom in September or October, and September is the worst of the 12 months on an annual basis. The first and last three months of the […]

Market Commentary

Jobs

Posted on

It is almost becoming boring as we added 201,000 jobs for the month of August and the unemployment rate remained at 3.9%. The only thing that generated a little bit of excitement in this report was the acceleration of pay. That average wage rose by 10 cents to 27.16 per hour. That translates to a […]

Market Commentary

Retirement Account Changes

Posted on
interest rates

This morning President Trump announced a plan, by executive order, to change certain rules regarding taking funds from retirement funds and making it easier for small businesses to offer 401K plans for their employees.  The old rule is that at 70.5 years old you were required to withdrawal a certain amount of money out of […]

Market Commentary

Trade Deficit

Posted on
retail sales

In July the deficit grew to the highest level in five months.  It rose 6.3% which will be a drag on the third quarter GDP number. A broad swath of goods exported from the U.S. fell for the second month in a row while imports rose. It is a sign of our strong economy and […]