Market Commentary

Why Bank Stocks are Falling this Week

Posted on
November’s inflation number

Why Bank Stocks are Falling this Week… It is all about the FED. The banks had an exemption that let them exclude Treasury’s and deposits with the central bank from the calculation. A key bank capital measure called the’ supplementary leverage’. They are going to let that exemption expire on March 31st. After the last […]

Market Commentary

Retail Sales

Posted on
Retail Sales

February retail sales fell hard at 3%, but that is not the whole story. January rose sharply, revised up to 7.6%. That was due to the covid relief package President Trump signed. Now we have President Biden signing a new stimulus last week so more checks are being sent. That new spending will show up […]

Market Commentary

Unemployment Claims

Posted on
unemployment claims

Yesterday the weekly report on unemployment claims fell to 712,000 the lowest level since November 7th where it was 711,000. That was less than expected and finally showed some movement in the right direction, down. However, that does not reveal the whole picture of people needing unemployment benefits and many of these payments expire after […]

Market Commentary

Manufacturing Services and Construction Spending

Posted on
economic numbers

The government released some economic numbers this week for February. The ISM manufacturing rose to 60.8 from 58.7 and services fell from 58.7 to 55.3. Both numbers are well above the 50% breakpoint between shrinkage and expansion. Manufacturing is unusually strong. Construction spending spiked 1.7%, over twice expected, and well above the 1.1% for January. […]

Market Commentary

Metals and Mining

Posted on

The mining index, which includes the largest diversified mining companies, is up 46% over the last year. Copper is up 62%, silver up 51% and platinum is up 32%. Does this mean metals have further to go? It is a question on every investor’s mind? There are two factors that support higher prices; one is […]

Market Commentary

Inflation

Posted on
Possibility of inflation.

There has been a lot of press about the possibility of inflation. Some think it is not coming and others, all pundits or experts of some kind, believe it is. I submit that it is already here. A barrel of oil is at $61, the highest level since the crash of last year where it […]

Market Commentary

What is Warren Buffet Doing?

Posted on
Warren Buffet Stock

It is always interesting to see what Warren Buffet is doing with the cash of his Berkshire Hathaway company. In a release yesterday after the market closed, he announced a number of buys and sells from his portfolio of stocks. He bought a lot of telecom and oil stocks and cut his Apple computer position. […]

Podcast Episodes

Commodity Super Cycle

Posted on
fifth super cycle of commodities

Recently, a highly regarded strategist at JP Morgan stated that we are entering the fifth super cycle of commodities, his name is Marko Kolanovic.  He cites the Covid recovery, very loose monetary and fiscal policy, a weak dollar, stronger inflation, and the impact of environmental policies on supply and demand. This supercycle language refers to […]

Market Commentary

Watching For Inflation

Posted on
Inflation

The Consumer Price Index rose only .3% last month showing inflation at the consumer level is still well contained. The only area showing inflation was the cost of gasoline at a 7.4% increase. The core rate of inflation is only 1.4% for the past year unchanged from the prior month. The Federal Reserve has, in […]

Market Commentary

Durable Goods

Posted on
Durable Goods

Covid has distorted many areas of the economy. Durable goods sales as reported today for December were weaker than expected. These are items that are more expensive lasting at least three years than consumers and businesses purchase. The reason why they are considered important is that they are generally more expensive and it takes careful […]