Market Commentary

Manufacturing Services and Construction Spending

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economic numbers

The government released some economic numbers this week for February. The ISM manufacturing rose to 60.8 from 58.7 and services fell from 58.7 to 55.3. Both numbers are well above the 50% breakpoint between shrinkage and expansion. Manufacturing is unusually strong. Construction spending spiked 1.7%, over twice expected, and well above the 1.1% for January. […]

Market Commentary

Metals and Mining

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The mining index, which includes the largest diversified mining companies, is up 46% over the last year. Copper is up 62%, silver up 51% and platinum is up 32%. Does this mean metals have further to go? It is a question on every investor’s mind? There are two factors that support higher prices; one is […]

Market Commentary

Inflation

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Possibility of inflation.

There has been a lot of press about the possibility of inflation. Some think it is not coming and others, all pundits or experts of some kind, believe it is. I submit that it is already here. A barrel of oil is at $61, the highest level since the crash of last year where it […]

Market Commentary

What is Warren Buffet Doing?

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Warren Buffet Stock

It is always interesting to see what Warren Buffet is doing with the cash of his Berkshire Hathaway company. In a release yesterday after the market closed, he announced a number of buys and sells from his portfolio of stocks. He bought a lot of telecom and oil stocks and cut his Apple computer position. […]

Podcast Episodes

Commodity Super Cycle

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fifth super cycle of commodities

Recently, a highly regarded strategist at JP Morgan stated that we are entering the fifth super cycle of commodities, his name is Marko Kolanovic.  He cites the Covid recovery, very loose monetary and fiscal policy, a weak dollar, stronger inflation, and the impact of environmental policies on supply and demand. This supercycle language refers to […]

Market Commentary

Watching For Inflation

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Inflation

The Consumer Price Index rose only .3% last month showing inflation at the consumer level is still well contained. The only area showing inflation was the cost of gasoline at a 7.4% increase. The core rate of inflation is only 1.4% for the past year unchanged from the prior month. The Federal Reserve has, in […]

Market Commentary

Durable Goods

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Durable Goods

Covid has distorted many areas of the economy. Durable goods sales as reported today for December were weaker than expected. These are items that are more expensive lasting at least three years than consumers and businesses purchase. The reason why they are considered important is that they are generally more expensive and it takes careful […]

Market Commentary

New Car Battery

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electric vehicles builds

The auto industry is changing fast as the pressure to move to electric vehicles builds. The new President will accelerate the change, but there are certain limitations that need to be overcome before the American people will fully embrace EVs. The battery has always been the limiter. They are heavy, the car can’t go very […]

Market Commentary

Import Prices

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imported goods rose .9%

In December, the cost of imported goods rose .9% matching the largest increase in the most recent five months. Also, this makes for the seventh time in eight months that prices rose. Import price inflation is low as year over year numbers show a decrease in prices of .3%. However, if you remove the price […]

Market Commentary

Real Inflation

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Consumer price index numbers

The Consumer price index numbers were released for December and they show an increase from .2% to .4% month over month. That is still very low inflation, but it is clearly starting to pick up. Inflation will continue to rise. We have seen oil prices per barrel march up from their lows this year reaching […]