Market Commentary

The Middle Class

Posted on
housing market

The middle class in recent years is not growing as it had from the mid 1990’s to the mid 2000’s. It is not a mystery as to why, it is because of rising costs in three areas; housing, healthcare and education. Also, global competition and technology are squeezing middle class careers. It is not a […]

Market Commentary

The ECB

Posted on
investment vehicle

The European Central Bank met this week and left interest rates unchanged. That was expected. Mario Draghi the president said they will continue to reinvest the principal payments from their recently completed bond-buying program for an extended period beyond the time when the ECB will increase interest rates. Since they plan on not increasing interest rates […]

Market Commentary

China Deal

Posted on
competition

All indications are good when it comes to the Chinese/U.S. trade talks. Yesterday it was reported that 90% of the issues have been resolved and the stock market has reacted well. However, there is that last 10% remaining. We do not know what it is, but most likely it is the hardest part of all […]

Market Commentary

Jobs for March

Posted on
interest rates

The ADP jobs report out this morning showed 129,000 new positions were produced for March. This report is not official and only covers the private sector. It is also often at odds when compared to the official report that is due out on Friday. The official report is considered more accurate, but that may not […]

Market Commentary

Red Flags for the Economy

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Businessman Working Dashboard Strategy Research Concept

The yield curve has become flat. In the past, if it inverts that has been a major red flag for the economy, meaning a recession is not far behind. Generally, an inverted yield curve is when short term treasury bonds pay higher yields than long term bonds. The most common period used is comparing a […]

Market Commentary

The FedEx Warning

Posted on
competition

Yesterday, FedEx came out with weak earnings and forecast for 2019. Since their business is delivering packages worldwide, they are considered a bellwether for world economic activity. The Chairman cited slower global trade and difficulty in integrating a European competitor it bought last year. Slowing international GDP growth has been forecasted by the International Monetary […]

Market Commentary

First Quarter GDP

Posted on
gap graph

It likely that the GDP for the first quarter of 2019 slowed way down from the 2018 average of 2.9%. Most experts are calling for 1% or so growth. They point to a sharp slowdown in retail sales. The problem with that is retail sales reports for February are delayed and all we have is […]

Market Commentary

Stock Market Volatility

Posted on
investment vehicle

This week we will have a rare Quadruple Witching Friday. That is where contracts for stock-index futures, stock –index options, individual stock options and individual stock futures all expire. What that means for the stock market is more volatility. So this week we will see options buying and corporate buyback flows as a likely result, […]

Market Commentary

The Economy

Posted on
earnings report

For December, new home sales spiked to 621,000 from 599,000 in November. This data was delayed and at this point is pretty old. For the same month construction spending, also delayed, was down .6%; twice what was expected. It is difficult to gauge the strength or weakness of the economy with the delayed reports from […]