Market Commentary

How Does the Government Count Inflation?

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For consumers the CPI (Consumer Price Index) comes out every month and it measures the rate of increase of certain products. The government also measures inflation at the producer level known as the PPI. For CPI there is a basket of goods and services they price which includes food, gas, energy, utilities, clothes, automobiles, other […]

Market Commentary

Mortgage Rates

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The rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage, the most common length of a mortgage, rose to 4.32% this week which is a 4 year high. This was not due to the recent FED hike, even though it does influence other rates, the FED can only raise the rate they charge for other banks to […]

Market Commentary

Inflation

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U.S. consumer prices rose .5% in January, the biggest monthly increase since 2012, and core consumer inflation rose. 3%. That was higher than expected and certainly puts the FED on course to raise interest rates in March. If this continues, it also may mean a stronger indication of continued increases for the rest of the […]

Market Commentary

Trade Deficit

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Recently it was reported that the U.S. trade deficit rose to the highest level in 9 years. Is that a bad thing? Most would say yes and for very valid reasons. It means we are importing more goods and/or services than we are exporting. Most of that is comprised of goods that American’s buy because […]

Market Commentary

Jobs/Inflation

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Every month we get the jobs report and this morning’s was pretty good. The Labor Department reported 200,000 new jobs were produced in January. That was a bit more than expected but what was a surprise was that wage growth increased at an annual rate of 2.9%, the fastest pace in more than eight years. […]

Market Commentary

Existing Home Sales

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A report comes out each month outlining the sales of homes that already exist. The number fell sharply for December. Normally that might be bad news but not in this case. The problem is a lack of inventory which has been ongoing for 31 months in a row. Supple of homes dropped 11.4% in December […]

Market Commentary

Are We in a Euphoria Stock Market?

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The question is raised because once Euphoria sets in with stock market investors the end of the market is nigh. John Templeton a long time legend in investing, has described the four phases of investing in 1994. He said “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” […]

Market Commentary

Cryptocurrency Crash

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Everyone is talking about the new way to do business with cryptocurrency. Even the average person on the street has heard about it and is wondering how they can make money, at the same time not having a clue as to how it works. That is a clear sign of a bubble and we are […]

Market Commentary

The Fall Of Bonds

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The Bond market has been referred to as a leading indicator for stocks and this week bond prices have fallen hard with yields rising sharply. The cause was twofold, Japan said they would cut their form of QE, trimming their bond buying program, and there was a rumor that China is considering cutting back on […]

Market Commentary

Monthly Jobs Report

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This morning’s December Jobs Report stated we produced 148,000 new positions but that was much less than the month before and much less than expectations. The end of the year jobs numbers often are revised strongly up or down simply because of the seasonal hiring for the holidays. The previous two months numbers were revised […]