Market Commentary

Gold

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shopper

Gold is one of the assets that does not move in conjunction with the stock market but rather tends to go its own way.  For instance, gold started to move up in October after a year of sideways action and while stock prices plunged in December, the worst December in history for stocks, gold kept […]

Market Commentary

Cap-Ex Spending

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Businessman Working Dashboard Strategy Research Concept

Capital Expenditures by corporation help drive future earnings growth and boost economic expansion. In 2017, with the corporate tax reform, U.S. companies increased their expenditures by 10.1% in 2018; more than double the 4.1% in the prior six months. Now that spending is falling. In the most recent third quarter it rose only 2.5% and […]

Market Commentary

Existing Home Sales

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housing market

December’s existing home sales was weak, much weaker than expected, down 6.4% for the month and 10.3% from a year ago. This has not been a very good year for existing home sales. The 2018 year matched the same number of homes sold in 2015. The Fed in recent weeks has been talking down raising […]

Market Commentary

The Shutdown

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earnings report

The government shut down has not affected many areas of the economy but in terms of the economic statistics that the government releases each week it has had a strong impact. This week we have December Retail Sales delayed, Business Inventories delayed, housing starts delayed along with building permits. Weekly jobless claims was not delayed […]

Market Commentary

Brexit

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uk flag

After Britain’s failure yesterday to pass an EU negotiated plan to exit the EU the British government has no plan to pursue. So what will happen? Most likely one of three things; Britain goes back to renegotiate a new deal, but that seems fruitless with the government Theresa May has back home. Secondly, the UK […]

Market Commentary

GDP and Trade

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investment vehicle

Every quarter the government reports the health of our economy and one of the main ways they do that is providing the numbers for Gross Domestic Product. This is the measurement of economic activity for the most recent quarter. They then take all four quarters of the year and report the annual GDP growth or […]

Market Commentary

Economics

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analytics on desk

The world economy has slowed as evidence of both Germany and Japan showing contraction in the most recent quarters. If they have two quarters in a row that is the definition of a recession. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) economists have ratcheted down world growth for 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%. The problem is less […]

Market Commentary

Jobs

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interest rates

You cannot help but comment on this morning’s jobs report. It was almost twice as strong as expected at 312,000 new jobs created for December. For October and November the numbers were revised up by about 100,000. Meanwhile the unemployment rate went up, not down, to 3.9% from a 40 year low of 3.7%. A […]

Market Commentary

China Slowdown

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gap graph

China has suffered through a bear market in stocks all year, and now within the last few months, their factories are showing the slowdown stock prices predicted. The Chinese government in conjunction with a major business magazine conducted a survey of Chinese factories and it clearly showed domestic demand slowing. That means internally China’s consumers […]

Market Commentary

Stock Valuations

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competition

The stock market constantly moves up and down and sometime in a startling way as we saw this week. At times this movement is for valid reasons and sometimes for no reason at all. Despite this erratic type of behavior the long term driver is corporate earnings. Generally if earnings for a company go up […]