Market Commentary

Economic Stats

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Last week a plethora of economic data was released. It is the job of the investor to determine which statistic is more important and what to look for in the data that might help in determining the future direction of the economy. Essentially an investor is looking for evidence of the next recession, an imperfect […]

Market Commentary

Dramatic Slowdown

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A dramatic slowdown in job creation for May came as a surprise. Only 75,000 new jobs were created when the expectation was for 180,000. Also, they revised downward by 75,000 total jobs for the previous two months. However, the unemployment rate remained steady at a 50-year low of 3.6% with hourly wages year-over-year up 3.1%, […]

Market Commentary

Jobs May 2019

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etf vs etn

This morning, ADP released their report on the number of private sector jobs produced in May, and the number was a far cry from the month before going from 271,000 to 27,000. Historically ADP has been erratic in their numbers but in recent years they have been getting better so we need to take this […]

Market Commentary

Sell Single

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interest rates

The stock market for all of May has fallen after the first four months of the year rebounding from a 10% correction at the end of 2018. It is obvious that the market has run out of steam and without a catalyst, the market could easily give up another 10% correction. The sell signal that […]

Market Commentary

Negative Interest Rates Still Exist

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For years European nations have been experimenting, on an emergency basis to jump start their economy, with negative interest rates, and the question needs to be asked has it worked? Today those countries that moved their bank policy to reflect negative rates are still stuck with them. They seem to not be able to return […]

Market Commentary

Indications

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Am I invested properly

Recently we have seen large hedge funds unwind VIX option positions that indicate they have become bullish on the market after being bearish up to this point for the year. We have also seen institutional investors moving cash into the market, while May has been a difficult month for stocks. The smart money investors are […]

Market Commentary

Small Businesses

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retail sales

Small businesses employ up to 75% of workers in the U.S. Their health and optimism is very important since our economy is 70% consumer driven. Anything that keeps consumers employed and spending is good for U.S. economic health. This week the Small Business Optimism Index came out. This index is produced by the National Federation […]

Market Commentary

Retail Sales

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This week’s April retail sales report was weak shrinking .2%. This was the second time in three months. For March it was strong up 1.8%, but then in February it was down .2%. What it appears to be telling us is that the consumer is taking a less aggressive spending stance in 2019. Maybe it’s […]

Market Commentary

Interest Rate

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Businessman Working Dashboard Strategy Research Concept

The President has called for an interest rate cut of up to 1 full percentage point while the Fed states that rates are fine where they are. Historically the rates are still low. The Fed increased them 9 times over a two year period with the last increase in December. So why would the President […]

Market Commentary

Trade Talks

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gross domestic product

Apparently, the trade talks with China are entering a final phase with China trying to renege on issues already agreed to and Trump threatening to raise tariffs to the levels he wanted in the first place. This sounds like a lot of posturing to me. Note the main trade negotiator for China is still coming […]