Market Commentary

Deflation

We are all familiar with inflation, but we have not seen any real sign of inflation in well over a decade. What we have seen is deflation. Japan started a deflationary cycle in 1990 and still struggles with it today. However, it is a problem that has and is spreading around the world and the central banks are doing little or nothing to stop it. In fact there is an argument that their constant interference in the interest setting is causing deflation.

For instance, in Europe and Japan those central bankers have lowered rates to negative territory in a failed effort to spark their economies. Obviously that has failed yet they continue to pursue this policy. In the U.S. the Fed is doing the same thing just not yet to negative territory. Maybe a different approach is needed.

Since inflation is primarily a monetary issue why not just print more money. Let the market set all interest rates including the one that the Fed controls, the overnight rate for money lent by them to the banks.

Deflation and the damage it can do is a lot more likely than inflation and since controlling the overnight interest rate has not worked to boost economies why not take a different approach?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *