Market Commentary

Durable Goods

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The report of sales of durable goods for May came in today with a fall of 1.3% from the month before. That is a significant number and would normally worry analysts. Also, this is the third time in four months that the number has shrunk. Looking deeper much of the struggle with these numbers can be placed at the doorstep of Boeing and their problems with the 737 Max Jet. You will remember that this new plane crashed a couple of times and Boeing has stopped selling it and taking orders until they fix the problem. That rippled through much of the manufacturing industry.

If one looks deeper into the durable goods report you will see business investment perked up a little and that companies have not frozen their spending on bigger ticket items despite the trade tensions with China. If you strip out cars and planes from the durable goods orders the number actually came in positive; up .3% in April and core orders for May rose .4%, the biggest increase since January.

There are a number of cracks in the economy but the numbers keep indicating a slower pace of economic growth not a contraction. That could change at any time as we are at a delicate balance.

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