Market Commentary

Durable Goods

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A very disappointing number for Durable goods sales for November and a strong revision downward for October made for some concerns for the economy. The top line number sank 2% and the revision went from a rise of .5% to a rise of .2% in October.

However, it is not as dire as at first blush. Defense aircraft sales fell 72.7% in November and orders for all transportation equipment fell 5.9%. If you strip out transportation, durable goods sales look much better at a rise of .8%.

If you examine the core capital goods sales, numbers that reflect what corporate America is doing, the rise was a small .1%. It appears that manufacturing is still under a lot of pressure so do not look for good profit numbers from this sector in the final quarter of the year. Maybe with the partial trade deal with China 2021 will see improvement.

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