This morning July’s durable goods report was released. It jumped by 11.2%. That is three straight months of very strong numbers following March and April’s double-digit collapse. The expectation for July was a strong 4.8% increase. At 11.2% instead, suggests the economy is rebounding faster and stronger than all experts assumed.
However, the devil is always in the details. Transportation often distorts the monthly numbers and auto and truck sales increased 22% after increasing 24% in June. Removing auto and airplane sales, normally referred to as the transportation sector, durable goods sales still rose but at a much more modest 2.4%. Orders for most industrial goods rose, but slowly.
The economy is on a good path but still has a long way to go to reach pre-COVID levels.