It does little good to look back as the economic data comes in for February. Those numbers will show how the economy was, not how it is.
One report out yesterday, the Flash Market PMI manufacturing and services for March is telling the story of what we are currently going through. It is the first of many that will show a stark contrast from a healthy economy to one falling into a recession. For manufacturing, it fell from 50.7 in February to 49.2 and for services 49.4 to 39.1. It is the first number showing a clear sign of economic contraction.
The Weekly jobless claims come out tomorrow and the estimate is for 2.5 million from the week before at 281,000.
You only know for sure that you are in a recession looking backward because the data is always behind. Let me assure, we are in a recession. It’s a matter of how deep and long it will be and that depends on the reaction to the coronavirus.