Market Commentary

Employment

Weekly Jobless Claims

Weekly jobless claims in the most recent week came in at 1.31 million, which is a four-month low but still a very high number. Those people still collecting unemployment benefits remains elevated at 32.9 million. At the same time, the monthly unemployment numbers in May and June show an increase of 7.5 million jobs. There seems to be a disconnect between the weekly jobless claims and the monthly jobs report. So, which do we believe?

The monthly report is probably the better number simply because the weekly claims report only tells you the number of people that lost their jobs and not the number of people gaining jobs.

So why look at the weekly jobs report – because it is a leading economic indicator and generally tracks the health of the economy in real-time.