Market Commentary

First Quarter GDP

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It likely that the GDP for the first quarter of 2019 slowed way down from the 2018 average of 2.9%. Most experts are calling for 1% or so growth. They point to a sharp slowdown in retail sales. The problem with that is retail sales reports for February are delayed and all we have is January’s which were weak despite a strong work force fully employed.

Because of the strong job market, a recession is not coming anytime soon. The cause of the next recession is likely to be massive corporate debt that needs to be refinanced, not the lack of spending by the consumer.

Expect a slow first quarter but a pick up in the second as consumers are happy and will increase their spending.

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