Market Commentary

Inflation

This week we saw inflation perk up at the wholesale level by .3% for the month of March despite lower energy costs. This means over the last year it is up 3%. Core wholesale inflation rose to .4%. That still leaves core inflation just under 3% for the year.

These numbers are at the wholesale not retail level which is what we pay as consumers. However, when prices rise for producers of goods and services they generally pass the cost along, but competition is fierce and that tends to keep prices under control. The retail inflation rate is 2.2% in the last 12 months.

It appears that the FED is content with its interest rate rise pace and inflation is not a worry at these levels. If inflation rises fast you can be certain the FED will want to stop it by sharp increases in interest rates and if that happens a recession will not be far behind.

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