Market Commentary

Inflation

November’s inflation number

November’s inflation number was good if you consider no inflation a positive. Some, including the Federal Reserve, think no inflation is not desirable. Rather, some modest inflation, and increasing inflation, as long as it is under control is healthy for the economy. Core inflation fell month over month in November. It rose .2% in September.

Inflation is not going to pick up until covid is defeated and that won’t be until mid to late 2021. At that point, most economies around the world will strengthen pushing up prices of most things. Especially after a long period in which the production of commodities shrank. You will be able to see inflation gain traction when the dollar weakens. It is already weak as investors try and beat the rush, but it is likely to continue its downward spiral. Inflation of the dollar is leading the way for further inflation. Oil has risen sharply from its low caused by the initial spread of covid. Is the price of oil forecasting more inflation? That is likely.