Market Commentary

Red Flags for the Economy

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The yield curve has become flat. In the past, if it inverts that has been a major red flag for the economy, meaning a recession is not far behind. Generally, an inverted yield curve is when short term treasury bonds pay higher yields than long term bonds. The most common period used is comparing a […]

Market Commentary

The FedEx Warning

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competition

Yesterday, FedEx came out with weak earnings and forecast for 2019. Since their business is delivering packages worldwide, they are considered a bellwether for world economic activity. The Chairman cited slower global trade and difficulty in integrating a European competitor it bought last year. Slowing international GDP growth has been forecasted by the International Monetary […]

Market Commentary

First Quarter GDP

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gap graph

It likely that the GDP for the first quarter of 2019 slowed way down from the 2018 average of 2.9%. Most experts are calling for 1% or so growth. They point to a sharp slowdown in retail sales. The problem with that is retail sales reports for February are delayed and all we have is […]

Market Commentary

Stock Market Volatility

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investment vehicle

This week we will have a rare Quadruple Witching Friday. That is where contracts for stock-index futures, stock –index options, individual stock options and individual stock futures all expire. What that means for the stock market is more volatility. So this week we will see options buying and corporate buyback flows as a likely result, […]

Market Commentary

The Economy

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earnings report

For December, new home sales spiked to 621,000 from 599,000 in November. This data was delayed and at this point is pretty old. For the same month construction spending, also delayed, was down .6%; twice what was expected. It is difficult to gauge the strength or weakness of the economy with the delayed reports from […]

Market Commentary

Consumer Still in the Driver’s Seat

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retail sales

We are getting catch up data released this week from the government shutdown and at the same time we are getting some reports that are delayed again. New home sales and durable goods orders for January are both delayed again. Yesterday the consumer confidence index for February spiked up to 131.4 from 121.7 in January. […]

Market Commentary

Retail Sales

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The late retail sales report for December was released yesterday. It showed a strikingly weak number falling 1.2%, and if you take out autos it fell 1.8%. Those are the worst numbers in nine years. Gasoline sales fell hard too, but mostly because the price at the pump fell in December. However, internet sales shrank […]

Market Commentary

Household Debt

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In the fourth quarter of 2018, household debt rose for the 18th quarter in a row.  It stands at $13.54 trillion as reported by the New York Federal Reserve. At the same time new mortgage debt fell to the lowest level in nearly four years. The refi business was crushed and balances on home-equity loans fell […]