Market Commentary

The Correction

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The market has fallen in October; something that was expected, not only was it expected but most investors should welcome the weakness. Corrections are normal and health restoring to a sustainable Bull market. When stocks only go up, and keep trying to reach the sky, there has been a collapse that followed and it can […]

Market Commentary

What are Corrections?

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There are two major phases in the movement of stock prices. We call them Bull and Bear markets. In either a long term general trend up or down is established. The phases are generally defined as movements of 20% or higher. These can last for years and sometimes, though rare, decades. The longest Bear market […]

Market Commentary

Jobs

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The September jobs report does not look impressive with less than expected new jobs coming in at 134,000. However, the impressive number was the 3.7% unemployment rate which has not been seen since 1969. Maybe the low number of jobs can be blamed on Hurricane Florence but we will have to wait for next month’s […]

Market Commentary

Slightly Less Strong

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In recent weeks we have seen good economic data coming from the various bodies that report on the health of the U.S. economy. Though they are good reports the trend seems to be of less strength rather than more strength. In other words the numbers are turning ever so slightly weaker. It is far too […]

Market Commentary

Durable Goods

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The durable goods report for August came in yesterday. The headline number looked very impressive at an increase of 4.5% when the expectation was for half that amount. This was the biggest increase since February. This is a case in which you do not give the headline number much weight. After you strip out plane […]

Market Commentary

The FED and Interest Rates

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investment vehicle

The Federal Reserve meets today and will release the results of their meeting with an almost certain increase in interest rates. The rate they control, the overnight rate, influences almost all other rates including the all-important mortgage rates. The fear is that the FED will go too far. The economy is strong, unemployment is low […]

Market Commentary

Trade War

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This week President Trump imposed up to $200 billion in tariffs on China and China retaliated with $60 billion of their own.  This battle with China and other trading partners was supposed to be a big danger to our stock market as investors worry over corporate profits. But even though trade tensions are escalating the […]

Market Commentary

Housing

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Today new home construction and builder’s confidence reports were released. The builder’s confidence number remained unchanged month-to-month which is lower than the full year average for 2017. The new construction was much better up to 1.282 million, an increase of 9.2% for August. That is a very good number though it was lower than the […]

Market Commentary

Predictions

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Where the stock market goes in any short term period is impossible to predict with any consistency. There are patterns during the year, for example; the market tends to bottom in September or October, and September is the worst of the 12 months on an annual basis. The first and last three months of the […]