Market Commentary

Brexit

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uk flag

After Britain’s failure yesterday to pass an EU negotiated plan to exit the EU the British government has no plan to pursue. So what will happen? Most likely one of three things; Britain goes back to renegotiate a new deal, but that seems fruitless with the government Theresa May has back home. Secondly, the UK […]

Market Commentary

GDP and Trade

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investment vehicle

Every quarter the government reports the health of our economy and one of the main ways they do that is providing the numbers for Gross Domestic Product. This is the measurement of economic activity for the most recent quarter. They then take all four quarters of the year and report the annual GDP growth or […]

Market Commentary

Economics

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analytics on desk

The world economy has slowed as evidence of both Germany and Japan showing contraction in the most recent quarters. If they have two quarters in a row that is the definition of a recession. The IMF (International Monetary Fund) economists have ratcheted down world growth for 2019 to 3.5% from 3.7%. The problem is less […]

Market Commentary

Jobs

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interest rates

You cannot help but comment on this morning’s jobs report. It was almost twice as strong as expected at 312,000 new jobs created for December. For October and November the numbers were revised up by about 100,000. Meanwhile the unemployment rate went up, not down, to 3.9% from a 40 year low of 3.7%. A […]

Market Commentary

China Slowdown

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China has suffered through a bear market in stocks all year, and now within the last few months, their factories are showing the slowdown stock prices predicted. The Chinese government in conjunction with a major business magazine conducted a survey of Chinese factories and it clearly showed domestic demand slowing. That means internally China’s consumers […]

Market Commentary

Stock Valuations

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competition

The stock market constantly moves up and down and sometime in a startling way as we saw this week. At times this movement is for valid reasons and sometimes for no reason at all. Despite this erratic type of behavior the long term driver is corporate earnings. Generally if earnings for a company go up […]

Market Commentary

Housing Prices

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home prices

The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city index for home prices rose again in the most recent report out this morning for October. Ignoring the fact that the information is two months old, thus out of date as soon as it comes out, it showed a continuing trend of home price increase weakness. Prices as of October are […]

Market Commentary

Housing

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Two reports out this week showed a strong up move in sales of homes. First, the housing starts report showed 1.256 million homes were under construction for November. In the existing-home sales report 5.32 million changed hands, both numbers were better than expected. For new starts most of it was in multi-family units. That does […]

Market Commentary

The FED

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investment vehicle

After the meeting today the Fed is likely to increase the Fed Funds rate. Everyone will be paying little attention to what the Fed does, but they will focus on what Fed President Powell says about the future direction of rates. The recent stock market weakness may well give the Fed pause but it shouldn’t […]

Market Commentary

Job Openings

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Every month everyone focuses on the Jobs Report that tells us how many jobs were created or lost and where the unemployment rate stands for the previous month. Very few people pay any attention to the part of the report called Jobs Openings. That might be because it is a month behind. For October it […]