Market Commentary

Retail Sales for May 2018

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retail sales

The driver in our economy is the consumer making up 65% to 70% of the economic activity; therefore it is very important to watch the monthly retail sales numbers as that goes directly to the health of the individual’s spending on a monthly basis. There are parts of the report that need to be parsed […]

Market Commentary

The FED

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The U.S. central bank has a history of going too far in raising interest rates. At the end of their meeting today they will raise the rates for the sixth time. In the last 65 years there have been nine recessions and before each one the FED had either increased rates or was increasing them […]

Market Commentary

Trade

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The news is all about the trade deficit and tariffs proposed or implemented by President Trump in recent weeks. However, the trade deficit fell in April to $46.2 billion from $47.2 in March. That is improvement but it is still a very large gap. A gap that has been with us for many, many years. […]

Market Commentary

Volatility

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technology and app for KPP financial

In May the market calmed a bit from the large moves we have seen for most of this year.  The market has moved up one percent or more 21 trading days and down 15 so far in 2018. That is 36 days when the average of the S&P 500 is 53 days per year. 2018 […]

Market Commentary

Income and Spending

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people shopping

Personal Income and Spending reports for April came out this week. These reports are used in the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) report which is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. First, spending rose sharply for the second straight month pointing to a stronger economy. It rose .6% from a revised gain in March of .5%. […]

Market Commentary

Will Italy Leave the EU

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Over the holiday weekend Italy was in a political storm which may result in new elections after they just had them a few months ago. The pressure is coming from the politicians and their supporters who want more autonomy from the EU with a possible exit from the union like Britain is doing. The process […]

Market Commentary

Weekly Jobless Claims

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retail sales calendar

Every week the government reports the number of people that claim unemployment benefits. This is a leading economic indicator and is watch closely. This week the number rose to 234,000 for the week ending on May 19th. That was substantially higher than expected at 219,000. Is this a problem? Does it foreshadow danger for the […]

Market Commentary

Sowing Seeds

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investment vehicle

Recent manufacturing and service data suggest continued growth pressure. Makers of goods say they intend to boost production in the coming months and the service sector, although showing a slight slowdown, have the largest backlog of orders since 2015.   This data suggests a higher GDP number reaching 3.5% with high optimism and pressure to […]

Market Commentary

New Home Construction

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This week April’s new home construction report was released and it fell 3.7%. That top line number likely worried some but in fact it is not something that should affect anyone. In fact the market shrugged it off the day it came out.   The reason it is not a worrisome number is because it […]

Market Commentary

April Retail Sales

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momentum investing analytic

Retail sales came for April growing .3% from March, but March was revised higher at .8% growth instead of 6% originally reported.  So April’s number was actually .5% higher if March was not revised up by .2%. The important point here is that consumers spent more money in the last two months probably helped by […]