This morning, ADP released their report on the number of private sector jobs produced in May, and the number was a far cry from the month before going from 271,000 to 27,000. Historically ADP has been erratic in their numbers but in recent years they have been getting better so we need to take this lack of new jobs seriously.
On Friday the official jobs report comes out and the estimate is 215,000 new jobs. That report counts not only private job creation but includes public service jobs, whereas the ADP number does not.
The weekly unemployment claims has been hovering at record lows for weeks and is expected to come in at 215,000 tomorrow. Anything under 300,000 is a strong number and as this is a leading economic indicator it is one to watch carefully.
There is no doubt that our economy has slowed and we are seeing more evidence of that in the numbers. Still the economy is relatively strong but clearly softening. Will it soften into a recession? That is the million dollar question.