Market Commentary

Leading Economic Indicators

The LEI had risen three months in a row until May. The report released yesterday showed a flat reading. This is clearly pointing to moderation in our economy. Other indicators confirm this outlook despite a strong job market, but even there less jobs have been produced in the most recent month then that which was expected and what we have seen for the last two years.

The economy has grown for almost 11 years in a row, the longest in U.S. history so at some point everyone should expect softness. Currently, the projections are for a 2% GDP growth number by year-end and the LEI which looks forward 3 to 6 months confirms that signal for the time being.

If consumers continue to spend as they have this year a good year then the economy will be fine just not as good as last year.

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