Market Commentary

Patterns

The stock indexes are near their highs for the year. The broader market still has some work to do but the NASDAQ, with the FAANG stocks leading the way, broke above the highs for the year. That high came in late January just before a fast 10% correction in February. Since then it has been a slow, long slug to get back near the high.

Will the broader market break up and make new highs? The odds are good before year end but the odds are also good that we have more volatility beforehand. The two most volatile months in history are September and October but in the past the big down stroke, when they do happen in those months, have also marked the low just before the normal winter rally.

The pattern of a weak summer followed by a strong winter rally appears to be intact as our economy is strong and corporate earnings are on track to continue growing. The market continues to crawl up a wall of worry about trade and a rising interest rate environment.

Expect some short term weakness in the next couple of months but the decades long rally is still in place. Any weakness should be bought not sold.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *