Market Commentary


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Where the stock market goes in any short term period is impossible to predict with any consistency. There are patterns during the year, for example; the market tends to bottom in September or October, and September is the worst of the 12 months on an annual basis. The first and last three months of the year are generally better months for stock prices than the middle months of the year, but to time the market even while understanding these patterns is extremely difficult.

What one can do is manage the risk of a portfolio, reducing risks at times when the market is signaling over value and/or overheating and increasing risks when it swings back.

One enduring pattern, and one that can be taken advantage off, is in recessions. One can recognize when the economy is in a recession and begin to buy, not sell. There is always a recovery in stock prices from a recession but again there is no timing or predicting when exactly the best time to start buying is.

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