February retail sales fell hard at 3%, but that is not the whole story. January rose sharply, revised up to 7.6%. That was due to the covid relief package President Trump signed. Now we have President Biden signing a new stimulus last week so more checks are being sent. That new spending will show up in March. February was weak but the economy is still restricted. .1
The new spending package is higher so the impact will be greater, but we won’t get ‘normal’ spending numbers for several months. We need the vaccine to spread and the country reopened to see if there is sustainability in spending and by how much.