Market Commentary

Retail Sales and Production Bounces Back

Retail Sales

September was weak for retail sales even though this week’s revision had a .8% improvement. For October there was a strong bounce-back +1.7%, when you exclude autos, a big-ticket item, it was still +1.7%. Industrial production jumped 1.6% from shrinking 1.3% in September. Capacity utilization also rose to 76.4% from 75.2%.

Part of the reason for the bounce in inflation was the rise in import prices by 1.2% and gasoline prices at the pump are spiking. Also, supply chain disruptions continue to be an issue though there are signs of it easing. However, expect it to last into next year.

The economy appears to be gaining strength after a weak third quarter.