Market Commentary

Signs of Slowing

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Existing homes sales hit a two and half year low as reported for July, down .7% from June. The peak was in November last year. New home sales are also slowing. Though the housing market is still relatively strong it clearly points to the other side of a peak in housing.  Also this week an August gauge of manufacturing, while still displaying signs of growth for the economy, hit a nine month low.  This is the HIS Markit’s flash manufacturing index that came in at 54.5%. Anything over 50% suggests growth but again that number has been falling.

Is the economy weakening? We are seeing small cracks but so far you still can only describe the economy as robust as unemployment claims fell to a five decade low this week. However, GDP for this coming quarter may not be as strong as hoped.

Some are pointing to shortages of skilled workers and the tariffs are causing some disruption in manufacturing.  Therefore, it is possible the economy is just showing growing pains and nothing else.

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