Market Commentary

The Economy

The Leading Economic Indicators Report came out for June and it fell to -.3%. It has been falling for a number of months but this is the first time it fell below zero. It is signaling that our economy may slip into a recession 3 to 6 months from now unless it turns up next month.

It is not an infallible indicator just fairly reliable. If we add that to the other economic numbers we have been seeing it is obvious that the economy has slowed. This week’s reports also showed industrial production in June flat after being up .4% the month before.  Capacity utilization is shrinking to 77.9% from 78.1%, but also we had a strong retail sales number for June up .4%.

The picture is mixed but certainly soft when it comes to the current conditions of the economy. There are a number of conflicting signals but most show a weakening situation.

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