Market Commentary

The Slowing Recovery

retail sales report for October

This week, the all-important retail sales report for October was released. Though the growth continues it was very anemic at .3% from 1.6% in September. If you remove autos it was up .2% when September came in at 1.2%. Other parts of the economic landscape are a little better, but the recovery has slowed dramatically. Since consumers represent 66% or more of the U.S. economy a slowdown in sales is meaningful.

With a spike in covid cases, expect further struggles for the economy as various states start shutting down again. Small businesses, which makes up a majority of jobs in the U.S., will suffer the most. More layoffs are coming. A vaccine is coming as well, but will it be in time to prevent another recession? Will the government pass another stimulus? I think the vaccine is much more important and is coming sooner than anything from Washington.