Market Commentary

When will the Next Recession Hit the United States?

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This is a question pundits and economists would love to answer and most have an opinion. Someone will be right as the opinions vary from starting this year to within the next five years. The truth is, no one really knows.

What we do know is that the current economic up-cycle has lasted a very long time compared to past cycles. We know that we are seeing signals in the economy indicating that the next recession is nearing, such as the flattening and possible inversion of the yield curve and weakness in the rest of the world economically that could spread to the U.S. Also, we know that a recession can be forestalled with government intervention, such as a big spending bill out congress, maybe for infrastructure improvement, or even, in the current situation, a consummated Chinese trade deal.

It is clear that we are nearing the end of the current expansion.  What is not clear is ‘when’ will it end and ‘how’ bad will the next recession be?

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